SPC May 19, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST
TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern
Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather
hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong
to intense), very large hail, and severe winds.

A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into
the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing
into OK.  Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over
northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across
the warm sector.  The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable
for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with
the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread
damaging winds.  However, the mesoscale details of the forecast
result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of
greatest risk.

...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO...
A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward
today.  Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap
and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early
afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR.  Forecast soundings
in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and
deep layer shear profiles for supercell development.  All severe
hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes.  Refer to MCD #874
for further details.

...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE...
Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced
dryline will become established from west-central OK into central
KS.  Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with
dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability
and only a weak cap.  Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for
ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the
southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development
by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from
north TX into KS.  These storms will pose a risk of very large hail
and strong tornadoes through the early evening.

Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold
front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but
perhaps leading to more linear forcing.  Nevertheless, large hail
and tornadoes will still be possible.

..Hart/Moore.. 05/19/2025

StormPrep