SPC MD 871

MD 0871 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 291… FOR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS…SOUTHERN NEBRASKA

Mesoscale Discussion 0871
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1005 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...Northwest and North-central Kansas...Southern
Nebraska

Concerning...Tornado Watch 291...

Valid 190305Z - 190500Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 291 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat, along with potential for large
hail and wind damage will continue across parts of
north-central/central Kansas and southern Nebraska.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Hastings,
Nebraska shows scattered severe storms ongoing across parts of
southern and Nebraska and north-central Kansas. These storms are
located along and to the east of an axis of moderate instability.
The storms are also located along the western edge of a
strengthening low-level jet. The latest WSR-88D VWP near Hastings,
Nebraska is sampling the low-level jet well, with strong directional
shear in the lowest 2 kilometers and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
near 600 m2/s2. This will continue to be favorable for tornadoes,
mainly further south into north-central and central Kansas, where
instability is stronger and storms are more likely to be
surface-based. Very large hail and wind damage will be possible with
supercells. 

Further west into parts of northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska,
a line of strong to severe storms is developing along a frontal
boundary. As this line intensifies, a wind-damage threat may
increase over the next few hours.

..Broyles.. 05/19/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   40849874 41209943 41309991 41210054 41000093 40650102
            40170067 39519938 38899896 38689856 38789811 39419784
            40059805 40849874 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

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