SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. ...TX/OK to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley... While extensive overturning has already occurred, there are several primary areas of concern for severe storms tonight. In the near-term, the greatest tornado/wind potential should exist with a pair of supercells embedded within a broad southwest/northeast-oriented QLCS from the Ozark Plateau to the Red River. With the most pronounced low-level shear ahead of this portion of the QLCS, strong tornado and significant severe wind potential should persist into late evening. Despite stronger large-scale ascent focused west, the organized nature of the QLCS suggests that embedded wind gusts of 60-75 mph could produce a potentially widespread damaging wind swath that may persist east-northeast overnight. Have expanded outlook categories farther east across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. The trailing portion of the QLCS has been stubborn to accelerate east, but should begin to do so in the next couple hours. Short-term guidance has been insistent on additional convection developing back west with strengthening ascent ahead of the primary shortwave trough from central to eastern OK tonight. This could pose another round of severe hail/wind threat persisting into the early morning. ...KS and the Lower/Mid-MO Valley... Scattered severe storms should generally wane during the late evening. But similar to the OK redevelopment, post-dryline/frontal high-based convection should expand east-northeast and likely impinge on lingering strong to severe storms across eastern KS. This could maintain at least isolated severe storms lingering overnight. ..Grams.. 05/20/2025
