Official

SPC May 20, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across
parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to
widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain
possible.

...TX/OK to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley...
While extensive overturning has already occurred, there are several
primary areas of concern for severe storms tonight. In the
near-term, the greatest tornado/wind potential should exist with a
pair of supercells embedded within a broad
southwest/northeast-oriented QLCS from the Ozark Plateau to the Red
River. With the most pronounced low-level shear ahead of this
portion of the QLCS, strong tornado and significant severe wind
potential should persist into late evening. Despite stronger
large-scale ascent focused west, the organized nature of the QLCS
suggests that embedded wind gusts of 60-75 mph could produce a
potentially widespread damaging wind swath that may persist
east-northeast overnight. Have expanded outlook categories farther
east across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley.

The trailing portion of the QLCS has been stubborn to accelerate
east, but should begin to do so in the next couple hours. Short-term
guidance has been insistent on additional convection developing back
west with strengthening ascent ahead of the primary shortwave trough
from central to eastern OK tonight. This could pose another round of
severe hail/wind threat persisting into the early morning.

...KS and the Lower/Mid-MO Valley...
Scattered severe storms should generally wane during the late
evening. But similar to the OK redevelopment, post-dryline/frontal
high-based convection should expand east-northeast and likely
impinge on lingering strong to severe storms across eastern KS. This
could maintain at least isolated severe storms lingering overnight.

..Grams.. 05/20/2025

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