MD 0896 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0896
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025
Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 200419Z - 200645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase across central and eastern
Kansas over the next few hours. Large hail and isolated wind damage
will be the primary threats.
DISCUSSION...A couple areas of convection have intensified over the
last hour or so along a corridor from Salina southward to Wichita.
This convection is being supported by a shortwave trough moving
through the central Plains, evident on water vapor imagery. Ahead of
the storms, an unstable airmass is present over much of east-central
and southeast Kansas. RAP forecast soundings near Emporia, Kansas
late this evening have a low-level temperature inversion, with
MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg, and effective shear of 50 to 55 knots. This
environment should be favorable for large hail. In spite of the
low-level temperature inversion, an isolated wind-damage threat may
also develop with the faster and stronger downdrafts.
..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/20/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38929790 38649819 38069828 37649809 37319766 37229662
37309555 37809511 38489511 38959564 39099689 39029766
38929790
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN