SPC May 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
TN...NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL AND NORTHWEST GA...

...SUMMARY...
The greatest severe risk should persist this evening across eastern
Tennessee, northern to central Alabama, and northwest Georgia. A few
tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are likely, along with
isolated large hail.

...Lower MS Valley to the Cumberland Plateau into GA and the
Carolinas...
A scattered to broken swath of mixed discrete supercells, clusters,
and line segments is ongoing across the TN to Lower MS Valleys.
Primary severe potential will exist through late evening immediately
ahead of this activity from eastern Tennessee through the central
Alabama vicinity. Convection will move east across the pronounced
MLCAPE gradient across the southern Appalachians in the next few
hours, yielding a more isolated/weakening severe threat overnight
into the Carolinas. 

Large buoyancy persists ahead of the Lower MS Valley storms. But
increasingly veered and diminishing low-level flow in this region,
and weakening mid-level ascent with further removal of the shortwave
impulse suggest convection should subside overnight.

..Grams.. 05/21/2025

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