SPC MD 920

MD 0920 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA

Mesoscale Discussion 0920
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Areas affected...parts of southern Georgia into northern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 211533Z - 211800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorm development appears
underway.  Gradually, a couple of intensifying storms may pose a
risk for marginally severe hail and localized potentially damaging
wind gusts through 2-4 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Low-level forcing for ascent remains a bit unclear, but
scattered thunderstorm initiation appears underway within a broadly
confluent pre-frontal low-level regime.  Insolation within a
seasonably moist boundary layer, coupled with subtle mid-level
height falls on the southern fringe of the westerlies, are
contributing to weakening of inhibition, as CAPE increases in excess
of 1500 J/kg in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates.  

Deep-layer westerly flow and shear through lower/mid-levels appears
modest, but 50+ kt flow near and above 300 mb may enhance stronger
storms as they deepen in excess of 45-50 thousand feet AGL with
additional destabilization.  Gradually, a couple of these cells may
become capable of producing small to marginally severe hail, and a
few strong downbursts with potentially damaging surface gusts
through 18-20Z.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/21/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30888489 31518216 31138146 30178169 29678476 30198601
            30888489 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

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