SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in the Ozarks region this evening. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough is digging southeast across NE/KS. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature appears to be aiding weak elevated convection immediately downstream across northern KS. Over the last half hour or so, thickening cu field is noted across southwest MO, with other deepening cu over northern AR. Latest surface analysis suggests the primary zone of low-level convergence extends across northern AR into northeast OK. Convection may continue to increase along/north of this boundary, partly in response to the approaching short wave, aided by weak low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from SGF exhibits modestly steep lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and weak buoyancy. This may prove adequate for a few robust updrafts capable of generating hail, and perhaps some locally severe wind gusts. Reference MCD #926 for more information. ..Darrow.. 05/22/2025
