SPC May 22, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS
REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in the Ozarks region
this evening.

...01z Update...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough
is digging southeast across NE/KS. Large-scale ascent ahead of this
feature appears to be aiding weak elevated convection immediately
downstream across northern KS. Over the last half hour or so,
thickening cu field is noted across southwest MO, with other
deepening cu over northern AR. Latest surface analysis suggests the
primary zone of low-level convergence extends across northern AR
into northeast OK. Convection may continue to increase along/north
of this boundary, partly in response to the approaching short wave,
aided by weak low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from SGF
exhibits modestly steep lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and
weak buoyancy. This may prove adequate for a few robust updrafts
capable of generating hail, and perhaps some locally severe wind
gusts.

Reference MCD #926 for more information.

..Darrow.. 05/22/2025

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