SPC May 23, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop across
parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the
overnight hours, with large hail and severe gusts the main threats.
Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may
occur.

...Central/Southern Plains...
In the wake of overnight/early morning convection across parts of
central/south TX, low-level airmass recovery is anticipated today
across much of the southern/central Plains along and south of a
front. Only weak forcing aloft is forecast, as multiple
low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs progress
east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the
adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak
cyclogenesis over the central High Plains should encourage modest
low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern
CO/western KS by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of
sufficient destabilization, along with generally 35-45 kt of
deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. 

Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon
should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and
severe gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given
steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper
levels, isolated very large hail may occur. It remains unclear
whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across
southern KS/northern OK later in the evening/early overnight hours
as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if a separate
cluster will eventually develop. Regardless, the airmass across this
region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient
deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a
threat for hail and severe/damaging winds with whatever convection
that can persist this evening/overnight.

Across the southern High Plains, isolated to scattered high-based
thunderstorms may develop this afternoon along/east of the surface
dryline. Weak large-scale forcing and warm low/mid-level
temperatures limit confidence on overall thunderstorm coverage.
Still, any convection which can develop could pose an isolated
threat for severe hail/wind through the early evening before
weakening with the loss of daytime heating.

...Florida...
To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast FL
Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to
be overly strong, sufficient instability and shear should exist for
modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could
produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/23/2025

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