SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to spread across the central High Plains into the southern Plains later tonight. Large hail and severe wind gusts remain the main threats. ...01z Update... Earlier thoughts regarding severe tonight continue. Over the last few hours, several supercells have matured over the central High Plains, from the NE Panhandle into eastern CO. This activity is gradually growing upscale and should propagate south-southeast along an instability gradient, currently draped from eastern CO-western KS-northern OK. Latest 1km VAD winds exhibit roughly 25kt southerly flow across the southern Plains into southwest KS. This should contribute to the High-Plains convection spreading/developing downstream along the nose of the LLJ. With time, LLJ should focus more across the southern Plains, and this is where convection should ultimately concentrate after midnight. Large hail remains the primary risk with supercells, though some concern for damaging winds exists, especially if an MCS can mature across northern OK overnight. ..Darrow.. 05/24/2025