SPC MD 945

MD 0945 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS

Mesoscale Discussion 0945
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Areas affected...western and central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 240254Z - 240500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms should develop during the next few
hours across parts of western to central Kansas. Large hail will be
the primary initial hazard, with potential for severe gusts as
upscale growth occurs along the southern flank. Severe thunderstorm
watch issuance appears likely.

DISCUSSION...The initial stages of elevated convective development
appear to be underway over west-central KS. This elevated activity
should develop within a northwest/southeast orientation along the
buoyancy gradient. A very pronounced EML with mid-level lapse rates
of 9-9.5 C/km will hold to the southwest of the convective plume,
aiding in downstream large hail potential. The convective mode
should quickly evolve into clusters given orientation of large-scale
ascent relative to the slightly north of west mid/upper-level wind
profile. While most 00Z CAM guidance is suggestive of a hail-only
severe threat, the HRRR and RRFS continue to indicate potential for
a forward-propagating MCS and bowing structures which would yield a
severe wind threat in the early morning towards south-central KS.

..Grams/Mosier.. 05/24/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38240065 37739982 36949816 37079765 37379737 37739739
            38179769 38789856 39009907 39099972 39000042 38750075
            38510087 38240065 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

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