MD 0946 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0946
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025
Areas affected...the NE Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 240311Z - 240515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A lone supercell may yield a swath of large hail over the
next couple hours. Confidence is low in additional storm development
and longevity of the severe threat into early morning, rendering
watch issuance unlikely.
DISCUSSION...A lone discrete supercell with a history of large hail
reported up to golf-ball size has persisted over the past hour or so
across a portion of southeast WY. With 40-45 kt mid-level westerlies
sampled by the CYS/LNX VWPs, this supercell may persist for another
couple hours despite surface temperatures in the low to mid 60s
across the western NE Panhandle. Even cooler surface temperatures in
the 50s farther east and diminishing MUCAPE for elevated parcels
should eventually yield a weakening trend to this supercell into
early morning.
..Grams/Mosier.. 05/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...
LAT...LON 41970446 42120405 42060295 41870242 41370224 41210232
41060271 41010314 41780433 41970446
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN