MD 0947 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0947
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025
Areas affected...central/eastern OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 240436Z - 240530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Highly elevated convection across central Oklahoma may
yield an isolated, likely lower-end severe hail threat through the
early morning hours. A greater severe threat is expected to develop
out of Kansas later in the morning.
DISCUSSION...Highly elevated convection that appears to be rooted
around 700 mb has increased across central OK over the past half
hour. CAMs that well-simulated this development such as the 00Z
NSSL-MPAS and 02Z RRFS indicate that cells may struggle to greatly
intensify despite the presence of very steep mid-level lapse rates
and ample elevated buoyancy. This may be due to weaker effective
bulk shear for parcels rooted near 700 mb. As such, there is
uncertainty regarding how sustained a large hail threat may be. An
MCS still appears likely to emanate out of southwest and
south-central KS later in the pre-dawn hours, which should result in
a greater severe risk for north-central to northeast OK.
..Grams/Mosier.. 05/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36049813 36599791 36529693 36449638 36069538 35579533
35199560 35049618 35009734 35169787 36049813
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN