A weak area of high pressure situated over the eastern Gulf will once again promote cloud-free skies across North Florida and elevated rain chances in the Florida Peninsula (50-80%).
Periods of southerly flow may provide just moisture across North Florida for a thunderstorm or two along the western Florida Panhandle to develop this afternoon (10-30% chance of rain).
Thunderstorm coverage and intensity will maximize through the peak heating hours of the day, courtesy of the afternoon sea breeze; thunderstorms will likely becomestrong to severe.
There is aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather along and south of the I-4 corridor as thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts (50-65 mph), frequent lightning, instances of large hail (1-1.5” in diameter, or quarter-size to ping pong ball-size), and locally heavy downpours.
Thunderstorms could lead to areas offlooding and ponding wateracross low-lying/poor drainage areas, especially for locations that receive prolonged periods of heavy thunderstorm activity.
Very warm temperaturescan be expected statewide, with afternoon highs topping out in theupper 80s to middle 90s.
Prior to any rain relief this afternoon, some Florida locations may seetriple digit heat indices (98 to 102-degrees).
The return of low-level moisture may allow forareas of patchy fog and low cloudsto develop across North Florida and the Suwannee River Valley by early Sunday morning.
Elevated to locally sensitive wildfire concerns can be expected; thunderstorms producing frequent lightning may ignite new wildfires, especially in locations experiencinglong-term drought/dry soils and vegetation.
Moderate risk of rip currentscan be expected along Florida Panhandle and Northeast Florida beaches today.
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