SPC May 25, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to focus across parts of
the southern Plains tonight. Damaging winds, large hail and a few
tornadoes are all possible. Isolated severe storms are also possible
across the central High Plains and parts of the Southeast.

...01z Update...

Remnants of a long-lived MCS are propagating southeast across
western AL/southern MS early this evening. This complex appears to
be partially aided by a mid-level short-wave trough that will
approach the Southeast Atlantic Coast after 06z. Given the organized
nature of this activity, have adjusted severe probabilities a
immediately downstream to account for stronger storms spreading a
bit farther southeast than earlier anticipated. Even so, convection
should gradually weaken as it approaches southeast AL/southwestern
GA later this evening.

Upstream across the southern Plains, strong boundary-layer heating
has contributed to strong/severe thunderstorms along/east of the dry
line from the Trans Pecos, northeast into the TX South Plains.
Early-day MCS has maintained a cool, stable boundary layer across
much of eastern OK with surface temperatures holding in the
mid-upper 70s. Southeasterly low-level flow is forcing the dry line
to advance west into the eastern TX Panhandle, per boundary-layer cu
field. An agitated, and deepening cu field is also noted across
northwest OK along the northern nose of the aforementioned west TX
steep lapse rate plume. A few attempts at convection have been noted
over Dewey into Ellis County OK. Latest HRRR model continues to
suggest deep convection will eventually evolve from these deeper
thermals. However, 00z sounding from OUN remains notably capped with
very warm 700mb temperature (14C). 1km VAD winds remain focused into
this region of the southern Plains, and if/when storms develop it
appears LLJ will be more than adequate for upscale
growth/maintenance of a larger complex spreading southeast along the
old outflow-influenced corridor. Severe probabilities continue to
reflect this scenario.

Isolated severe thunderstorms should continue to propagate
east-southeast across the High Plains of eastern CO. Some high-res
models suggest this activity may continue well into the overnight
hours, subsequently advancing into western KS where additional
convection may develop within a warm advection regime.

..Darrow.. 05/25/2025

Read more