SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS ALABAMA INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. The greatest threat of large hail and wind damage will be over parts of southwest and south-central Texas. A locally greater threat for wind damage could also occur in the lower Mississippi Valley. ...TX to GA... A blocking pattern will persist across the CONUS, with ridging from the northern High Plains into the Prairie provinces, and a downstream closed low over the upper MS Valley. Broad cyclonic flow will likewise persist from the southern Plains to the southern Appalachians, atop a mean baroclinic zone from TX to the Carolina coastal plain. Outflow from an ongoing storm cluster across the Ark-La-Miss and additional storms later D1 (today) in TX will likely modulate the effective frontal zone tomorrow. The more probable corridor for severe-storm development Tuesday will be along the effective front from southwest into south central TX, though the usual forecast biases are a concern with convective outflow progressing farther southwest than explicitly forecast by model guidance. Where the boundary is established by afternoon, the richest moisture/warm temperatures beneath the elevated mixed layer will result in large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg). The boundary will also be coincident with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for supercells with very large hail, while any tornado threat will likely need to be focused with the stronger low-level shear along the modifying front/outflow with early storm development. Upscale growth into a larger cluster/MCS appears likely through the evening as convection spreads southeastward with an attendant threat for damaging winds/large hail. Farther east, the layered influences of ongoing and upcoming (D1) convection will largely drive the severe threat tomorrow across the Southeast. There will be some potential for a remnant MCV from convection tonight to move along the residual front/outflow tomorrow, potentially from MS to GA. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any convective clusters. ..Thompson.. 05/26/2025