SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will propagate across south central Texas this evening. Large hail and damaging winds remain the primary severe threats. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a slow-moving upper trough over the High Plains. This feature appears to be handled reasonably well by earlier model guidance and will prove to be partially influential in maintaining several thunderstorm clusters through the evening, into the overnight hours. Of greatest concern is the complex of deep convection that has developed over the Hill Country of central TX. Several supercells are embedded within the larger complex. Very large hail has been noted with these supercells, and perhaps a half dozen updrafts are likely generating large hail at this time. 00z sounding from DRT exhibits seasonally strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and modest 0-6km shear. Latest diagnostic data suggests a reservoir of at least 4000 J/kg MLCAPE resides across south central TX ahead of this activity. Some nocturnal increase to the LLJ is forecast across the middle TX Coast, and this may encourage an MCS to mature as it advances downstream ahead of the larger trough. Damaging winds may become more common as this cluster organizes. Farther north across the southern TX Panhandle region into western OK, isolated thunderstorms may continue to generate some hail. 00z sounding from AMA suggests ample deep-layer shear for the maintenance of ongoing activity, at least for several more hours. With time, nocturnal cooling may result in less robust updrafts; however, a few strong storms may continue through the overnight hours across this portion of the southern Plains. ..Darrow.. 05/27/2025