SPC May 27, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will propagate across south central Texas this
evening. Large hail and damaging winds remain the primary severe
threats.

...01z Update...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a slow-moving upper trough
over the High Plains. This feature appears to be handled reasonably
well by earlier model guidance and will prove to be partially
influential in maintaining several thunderstorm clusters through the
evening, into the overnight hours. Of greatest concern is the
complex of deep convection that has developed over the Hill Country
of central TX. Several supercells are embedded within the larger
complex. Very large hail has been noted with these supercells, and
perhaps a half dozen updrafts are likely generating large hail at
this time. 00z sounding from DRT exhibits seasonally strong
buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and modest 0-6km shear. Latest
diagnostic data suggests a reservoir of at least 4000 J/kg MLCAPE
resides across south central TX ahead of this activity. Some
nocturnal increase to the LLJ is forecast across the middle TX
Coast, and this may encourage an MCS to mature as it advances
downstream ahead of the larger trough. Damaging winds may become
more common as this cluster organizes.

Farther north across the southern TX Panhandle region into western
OK, isolated thunderstorms may continue to generate some hail. 00z
sounding from AMA suggests ample deep-layer shear for the
maintenance of ongoing activity, at least for several more hours.
With time, nocturnal cooling may result in less robust updrafts;
however, a few strong storms may continue through the overnight
hours across this portion of the southern Plains.

..Darrow.. 05/27/2025

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