SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across the northern Texas Panhandle and vicinity, and across southwest Texas/southeast New Mexico. Isolated wind damage may occur across the Gulf coast/Southeast. ...Synopsis... Blocking will persist over the CONUS, with a midlevel trough over the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, and a southern stream from TX into the Southeast. The primary baroclinic zone will remain from south TX eastward across the Gulf coast into the coastal Carolinas. Boundary-layer dewpoints are likely to remain above 70 F in areas not overturned by prior convection, which will again support MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg along the southern fringe of the westerlies aloft. However, the influence of convection from D1 casts uncertainty on the potential severe-storm threats tomorrow from LA into the Southeast, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL and potential mesoscale corridors of greater wind-damage threat could be identified in later outlook updates. Farther west, the scenario across the southern High Plains is looking more bimodal with time. To the south, lingering moisture/lapse rates and diurnal heating over the high terrain could initiate isolated supercells capable of producing large hail across southwest TX and southeast NM. To the north, an embedded shortwave trough rotating south-southeastward over the central High Plains, and an associated cold frontal surge, will focus thunderstorm development from extreme southwest KS into the northern TX Panhandle. A mix of storm clusters and supercells will be capable of producing large hail and severe outflow gusts as convection spreads southeastward Wednesday afternoon/evening, and a marginal severe threat could persist overnight into western OK. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025
