Official

SPC May 27, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS....

...SUMMARY...
Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across
the northern Texas Panhandle and vicinity, and across southwest
Texas/southeast New Mexico.  Isolated wind damage may occur across
the Gulf coast/Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Blocking will persist over the CONUS, with a midlevel trough over
the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, and a southern stream from TX
into the Southeast.  The primary baroclinic zone will remain from
south TX eastward across the Gulf coast into the coastal Carolinas. 
Boundary-layer dewpoints are likely to remain above 70 F in areas
not overturned by prior convection, which will again support MLCAPE
at or above 2000 J/kg along the southern fringe of the westerlies
aloft.  However, the influence of convection from D1 casts
uncertainty on the potential severe-storm threats tomorrow from LA
into the Southeast, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL and
potential mesoscale corridors of greater wind-damage threat could be
identified in later outlook updates.

Farther west, the scenario across the southern High Plains is
looking more bimodal with time.  To the south, lingering
moisture/lapse rates and diurnal heating over the high terrain could
initiate isolated supercells capable of producing large hail across
southwest TX and southeast NM.  To the north, an embedded shortwave
trough rotating south-southeastward over the central High Plains,
and an associated cold frontal surge, will focus thunderstorm
development from extreme southwest KS into the northern TX
Panhandle.  A mix of storm clusters and supercells will be capable
of producing large hail and severe outflow gusts as convection
spreads southeastward Wednesday afternoon/evening, and a marginal
severe threat could persist overnight into western OK.

..Thompson.. 05/27/2025

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