SPC MD 1004

MD 1004 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335… FOR SOUTH TX

Mesoscale Discussion 1004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Areas affected...south TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335...

Valid 270420Z - 270545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335
continues.

SUMMARY...Uncertainty exists over the longevity and potential
evolution of ongoing strong to severe storms in south Texas,
especially to the south of WW 335 overnight.

DISCUSSION...Deep convective cores have largely been relegated along
and north of the southward-sagging outflow boundary associated with
the extensive MCS arcing across east to south TX. Large buoyancy and
a 45-50 kt low-level jet per CRP VWP data are positives to
maintaining a potential severe threat overnight across parts of the
Brush Country. But the west/east-orientation of the convective
cluster along with stout MLCIN with southern extent into the Lower
Rio Grande Valley casts considerable uncertainty on cold pool
acceleration. It is possible that convection may remain strong to
locally severe as it ripples south along the sagging large-scale
outflow.

..Grams/Mosier.. 05/27/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29069855 28579821 28249786 28069758 27729764 27549786
            27669866 27999942 28580008 28989982 29069855 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

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