SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes should occur today across parts of the southern/central Plains. Isolated wind damage may occur across portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. ...Eastern Colorado/Kansas to western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles... A closed upper low over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest will drift slowly eastward today. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded on the western periphery of this low will move southeastward across the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Modest low-level moisture return should occur over parts of the southern/central High Plains ahead of this shortwave trough, with a narrow zone of weak to moderate MLCAPE forecast to develop across eastern Colorado into southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/northern Texas Panhandles by mid-afternoon. Multiple thunderstorms should initiate across eastern Colorado/southwest Nebraska and vicinity by 18-21Z as large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough overspreads the developing warm sector. Weak low-level flow is forecast to veer to west-northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height through mid-levels. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should support mainly supercell structures, with an initial threat for large to isolated very large hail. With time, a bowing complex should evolve from parts of western/southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, with a greater threat for scattered severe winds apparent this evening. A few tornadoes may also occur in a zone either side of the Colorado/Kansas border into southwest Kansas, where low-level shear/SRH should maximize early this evening. ...Western North Texas to North/Central Texas... A remnant MCV over west Texas will drift slowly eastward today towards north/central Texas. At least some destabilization will occur through this afternoon along/near a remnant surface front draped generally west to east over central Texas. Most high-resolution guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-afternoon in close proximity to the MCV. Modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies associated with this feature should support enough deep-layer shear for updraft organization and some supercell/large hail potential initially. With time, a small bowing cluster may develop and pose more of a severe wind threat through the late afternoon and evening as convection spreads generally east-southeastward into central Texas before eventually weakening. A tornado or two may also occur, as low-level shear will be modestly enhanced by the MCV. ...Far West Texas and Southeast New Mexico... This region will remain generally displaced to the west/behind large-scale ascent associated with an eastward-moving MCV over west Texas, and upper troughing over the north-central states. Still, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop through peak afternoon heating across the higher terrain of the Davis/Guadalupe Mountains and vicinity with large hail as the primary hazard. ...Upper Texas Coast to Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A loosely organized complex of storms across east Texas and upper Texas coast should drift eastward, with additional development/intensification this afternoon preceding it to the east. While locally damaging winds will be possible across a broad regional extent, a somewhat more focused potential for wind damage may exist within a very moist air mass and instability gradient (largely influenced by storms in prior days) across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. ..Guyer/Halbert.. 05/28/2025
