SPC May 28, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes should occur today across
parts of the southern/central Plains. Isolated wind damage may occur
across portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

...Eastern Colorado/Kansas to western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles...
A closed upper low over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest will
drift slowly eastward today. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded
on the western periphery of this low will move southeastward across
the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Modest
low-level moisture return should occur over parts of the
southern/central High Plains ahead of this shortwave trough, with a
narrow zone of weak to moderate MLCAPE forecast to develop across
eastern Colorado into southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/northern
Texas Panhandles by mid-afternoon. Multiple thunderstorms should
initiate across eastern Colorado/southwest Nebraska and vicinity by
18-21Z as large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough
overspreads the developing warm sector.

Weak low-level flow is forecast to veer to west-northwesterly and
gradually strengthen with height through mid-levels. Around 30-40 kt
of deep-layer shear should support mainly supercell structures, with
an initial threat for large to isolated very large hail. With time,
a bowing complex should evolve from parts of western/southern Kansas
into northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, with a
greater threat for scattered severe winds apparent this evening. A
few tornadoes may also occur in a zone either side of the
Colorado/Kansas border into southwest Kansas, where low-level
shear/SRH should maximize early this evening.

...Western North Texas to North/Central Texas...
A remnant MCV over west Texas will drift slowly eastward today
towards north/central Texas. At least some destabilization will
occur through this afternoon along/near a remnant surface front
draped generally west to east over central Texas. Most
high-resolution guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by
mid-afternoon in close proximity to the MCV. Modest enhancement to
the mid-level westerlies associated with this feature should support
enough deep-layer shear for updraft organization and some
supercell/large hail potential initially. With time, a small bowing
cluster may develop and pose more of a severe wind threat through
the late afternoon and evening as convection spreads generally
east-southeastward into central Texas before eventually weakening. A
tornado or two may also occur, as low-level shear will be modestly
enhanced by the MCV.

...Far West Texas and Southeast New Mexico...
This region will remain generally displaced to the west/behind
large-scale ascent associated with an eastward-moving MCV over west
Texas, and upper troughing over the north-central states. Still,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop through peak
afternoon heating across the higher terrain of the Davis/Guadalupe
Mountains and vicinity with large hail as the primary hazard.

...Upper Texas Coast to Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A loosely organized complex of storms across east Texas and upper
Texas coast should drift eastward, with additional
development/intensification this afternoon preceding it to the east.
While locally damaging winds will be possible across a broad
regional extent, a somewhat more focused potential for wind damage
may exist within a very moist air mass and instability gradient
(largely influenced by storms in prior days) across southern
portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

..Guyer/Halbert.. 05/28/2025

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