SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR DAY REFERENCES ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging winds will be possible from the Texas-New Mexico border eastward into central Texas. ...TX late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night... A midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over the lower MO Valley/Ozarks, as an associated surface cold front likewise moves across MO/AR/OK/TX in the wake of weak cyclogenesis from southern MO to the lower OH Valley. The warmest surface temperatures and steepest midlevel lapse rates are expected in the pre-frontal corridor from west central into central TX, where MLCAPE will likely exceed 2500 J/kg. Strong surface heating/mixing will erode convective inhibition and at least widely scattered thunderstorm development appears probable along and just south of the front by late afternoon across west central TX. Storms will then spread east-southeastward toward central TX through the early overnight hours. The strong buoyancy and sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt) will support supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail initially. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is also expected during the evening, with an attendant threat for damaging winds. A couple of tornadoes may also occur with the initial supercells and/or favorable storm interactions. ...Mid-South Thursday evening... With weak cyclogenesis expected across southern MO in advance of the midlevel shortwave trough, weak low-level mass response and northward moisture transport will occur from eastern AR to the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers. Midlevel lapse rate will not be steep, but destabilization will be sufficient for a broken band of storms near and south of the surface cyclone track. Forecast wind profiles suggest some potential for rotating storms with a low-end threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes. ...Southeast Thursday afternoon/evening... A moist boundary layer and daytime heating along and south of a residual baroclinic zone will likely support at least scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon from southeast AL/FL Panhandle across southern/central GA. There is some potential for a remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel trough to cross this area during peak heating, and an upgrade to SLGT risk/15% wind probabilities may become necessary in later updates. ..Thompson.. 05/28/2025