SPC May 28, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS...

CORRECTED FOR DAY REFERENCES

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and damaging winds will be possible from the Texas-New
Mexico border eastward into central Texas.

...TX late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night...
A midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over the lower
MO Valley/Ozarks, as an associated surface cold front likewise moves
across MO/AR/OK/TX in the wake of weak cyclogenesis from southern MO
to the lower OH Valley.  The warmest surface temperatures and
steepest midlevel lapse rates are expected in the pre-frontal
corridor from west central into central TX, where MLCAPE will likely
exceed 2500 J/kg.  Strong surface heating/mixing will erode
convective inhibition and at least widely scattered thunderstorm
development appears probable along and just south of the front by
late afternoon across west central TX.  Storms will then spread
east-southeastward toward central TX through the early overnight
hours.  The strong buoyancy and sufficiently long hodographs
(effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt) will support supercells capable
of producing isolated very large hail initially.  Upscale growth
into one or more clusters is also expected during the evening, with
an attendant threat for damaging winds.  A couple of tornadoes may
also occur with the initial supercells and/or favorable storm
interactions.  

...Mid-South Thursday evening...
With weak cyclogenesis expected across southern MO in advance of the
midlevel shortwave trough, weak low-level mass response and
northward moisture transport will occur from eastern AR to the
confluence of the MS/OH Rivers.  Midlevel lapse rate will not be
steep, but destabilization will be sufficient for a broken band of
storms near and south of the surface cyclone track.  Forecast wind
profiles suggest some potential for rotating storms with a low-end
threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes.

...Southeast Thursday afternoon/evening...
A moist boundary layer and daytime heating along and south of a
residual baroclinic zone will likely support at least scattered
thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon from southeast AL/FL
Panhandle across southern/central GA.  There is some potential for a
remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel trough to cross this area
during peak heating, and an upgrade to SLGT risk/15% wind
probabilities may become necessary in later updates.

..Thompson.. 05/28/2025

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