SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST CO...NORTHEAST NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...SOUTHERN KS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OK...AND ALSO FOR CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of the central and southern Plains. A more isolated severe threat may continue this evening across parts of the Southeast. ...KS/OK/TX Panhandle vicinity... Multiple clusters of storms are ongoing this evening from southeast CO/southwest KS into the TX/OK Panhandles. This convection is likely to persist through much of tonight, aided by a deepening mid/upper-level trough and nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection. In the short-term, ongoing supercells will pose a threat for large to very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some upscale growth is possible later this evening into the overnight hours, which could pose at least an isolated damaging-wind threat as storms move southeastward into a larger portion of southern KS and western/central OK. See MCD 1031 and 1032 for more information. ...Central TX into the Trans-Pecos region... A couple of isolated but intense supercells have moved across central TX this evening. Eventual weakening is expected as MLCINH begins to nocturnally increase, but the ongoing cells may persist through dusk as the move southeastward with a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Farther southwest, storms have struggled to develop across southwest TX, aside from one cell in the TX Big Bend region. Additional development cannot be ruled out this evening along an east-west oriented surface boundary draped from central TX into the Trans-Pecos. Any storm that can mature within the moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment could pose a threat of large hail and locally gusty winds. ...Southeast... An ongoing northward-moving band of convection from northern LA into southern MS/AL is expected to generally weaken with time this evening, but locally gusty/damaging winds could still accompany these storms through the evening. Locally strong storms may develop elsewhere across the Southeast tonight, as an approaching midlevel shortwave trough continues to support occasional storm development into early Thursday morning. ..Dean.. 05/29/2025