SPC May 30, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO
THE RED RIVER...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Saturday
afternoon/night from southern Kansas across central Oklahoma to the
Red River.

...Synopsis...
An amplified pattern will continue with a deep trough over the
Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic and a ridge over the northern High
Plains.  A smaller-scale shortwave trough, now over eastern MT, will
dig south-southeastward to KS/OK during the afternoon/evening, with
a weak surface reflection/trough providing a focus for severe-storm
development Saturday afternoon/evening.

...Southern KS/central OK Saturday afternoon/night...
Modest moisture return will occur ahead of the weak surface trough
and digging shortwave trough, though strong surface heating and
evapotranspiration will contribute to destabilization as a result of
full green-up and favorable soil moisture.  Storm initiation appears
most probable from southern KS into central OK by late afternoon
along and just east of a weak surface trough, and storms will spread
south-southeastward through the early overnight hours.  Moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE approaching 1500-2000 J/kg), minimal convective
inhibition, and long hodographs will support supercells capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.  Low-level moisture will be
on the lower margins for a tornado threat, though a couple of
tornadoes could occur during the evening with favorable storm
interactions.

...Mid-Atlantic Saturday afternoon...
In the wake of a pronounced shortwave trough and fairly widespread
D1 convection, low-level moisture/buoyancy will be more limited
tomorrow.  Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible during
the afternoon as an embedded speed max (now approaching Lake
Superior) rotates over VA/NC during the afternoon.  Daytime heating
and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s will drive weak
buoyancy, in an environment with 500 mb temperatures of -15 to -20 C
with strong west-northwesterly, deep-layer vertical shear.  The net
result will be the potential for strong/isolated damaging gusts and
marginally severe hail.

...Central/south FL during the day...
A band of convection will shift southward from central into south FL
during the day, along and ahead of a surface cold front.  There are
concerns about the degree of surface heating and midlevel lapse
rates given relatively early arrival of the convection.  However,
flow aloft will be unusually strong from the west, which suggest
some potential for storm organization and an accompanying threat for
wind damage.

..Thompson.. 05/30/2025

StormPrep