SPC MD 1043

MD 1043 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN WV…WESTERN/CENTRAL VA…AND NORTHERN NC


Mesoscale Discussion 1043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern WV...western/central VA...and
northern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 301706Z - 301900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase with eastward extent through
mid/late afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be
possible. A watch is likely for parts of the area, especially across
Virginia into North Carolina.

DISCUSSION...A mix of semi-discrete, marginal supercell structures
and line segments are advancing eastward across far southwestern WV
and far southwestern VA -- ahead of a surface low and cold front. In
the near-term, this activity is in an environment characterized by
weak buoyancy and strong/favorable low-level shear/SRH. As a result,
these storms will pose some tornado risk, though the limited
buoyancy casts uncertainty on the overall risk. Farther east,
continued diurnal heating of upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints will
contribute to stronger buoyancy along/south of a quasi-warm front
extending from the surface low eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. While
low-level SRH may not be quite as high with eastward extent, 
clockwise-curved hodographs and sufficient instability ahead of the
surface low will support damaging winds and a few tornadoes -- given
an expected cellular mode. A watch is likely for parts of the area,
with less confidence in the overall risk with westward extent.

..Weinman/Smith.. 05/30/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   35917969 36108019 36358050 36788109 37098143 37548162
            38088151 38438098 38977969 39207910 39287873 39197821
            38887788 38417777 37787784 36617839 36177867 35877913
            35917969 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

StormPrep