SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms remain possible this evening across the Mid Atlantic, with a threat of wind damage and a couple of tornadoes. ...Mid Atlantic into southern New England... A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across the Allegheny Plateau region this evening. A strengthening surface cyclone will move eastward toward eastern PA and NJ this evening, and approach southern New England by the end of the forecast period. A cluster of storms with embedded supercell structures will accompany the deepening cyclone this evening. Hodographs remain relatively enlarged, with 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2, and occasional low-level rotation may continue through the evening. Some tornado and wind-damage threat will spread east-northeast in conjunction with these storms into parts of southeast PA, DE, and NJ, before diminishing surface-based instability results in an eventual weakening trend later tonight. A couple strong storms cannot be ruled out overnight into southern New England. However, the severe threat appears increasingly limited with northeastward extent, due to a lack of surface-based instability, and only modest elevated buoyancy. ...Southeast WI into northern IL/northwest IN... Storms moving southward across eastern WI earlier produced marginally severe hail, and some localized threat for hail and strong gusts may spread southward into northeast IL/northwest IN this evening, in conjunction with a southward-moving midlevel shortwave trough. This activity should generally weaken later tonight as it encounters weaker instability. ...Carolinas into the Southeast and Florida... In the wake of earlier storms, weak convection is ongoing this evening across parts of the Carolinas, near a southeast-moving cold front. Substantial redevelopment appears unlikely due to the stabilizing influence of earlier convection, but strong low-level flow could support gusty winds with this weaker convection before it dissipates or moves offshore. Farther south/west, isolated strong storms remain possible this evening near the immediate Gulf coast near the front. With time, convection will spread into parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest storm organization and an isolated severe threat. ..Dean.. 05/31/2025