SPC May 31, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms remain possible this evening across the Mid
Atlantic, with a threat of wind damage and a couple of tornadoes.

...Mid Atlantic into southern New England...
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across the
Allegheny Plateau region this evening. A strengthening surface
cyclone will move eastward toward eastern PA and NJ this evening,
and approach southern New England by the end of the forecast period.
A cluster of storms with embedded supercell structures will
accompany the deepening cyclone this evening. Hodographs remain
relatively enlarged, with 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2, and
occasional low-level rotation may continue through the evening. Some
tornado and wind-damage threat will spread east-northeast in
conjunction with these storms into parts of southeast PA, DE, and
NJ, before diminishing surface-based instability results in an
eventual weakening trend later tonight. 

A couple strong storms cannot be ruled out overnight into southern
New England. However, the severe threat appears increasingly limited
with northeastward extent, due to a lack of surface-based
instability, and only modest elevated buoyancy. 

...Southeast WI into northern IL/northwest IN...
Storms moving southward across eastern WI earlier produced
marginally severe hail, and some localized threat for hail and
strong gusts may spread southward into northeast IL/northwest IN
this evening, in conjunction with a southward-moving midlevel
shortwave trough. This activity should generally weaken later
tonight as it encounters weaker instability. 

...Carolinas into the Southeast and Florida...
In the wake of earlier storms, weak convection is ongoing this
evening across parts of the Carolinas, near a southeast-moving cold
front. Substantial redevelopment appears unlikely due to the
stabilizing influence of earlier convection, but strong low-level
flow could support gusty winds with this weaker convection before it
dissipates or moves offshore. 

Farther south/west, isolated strong storms remain possible this
evening near the immediate Gulf coast near the front. With time,
convection will spread into parts of the northern/central FL
Peninsula, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest storm
organization and an isolated severe threat.

..Dean.. 05/31/2025

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