SPC May 31, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL TX...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible this afternoon
into tonight from southern Kansas across central Oklahoma to the Red
River.

...Central/southern Plains...
A pronounced mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains will
move south/southeast across the central and southern Plains through
tonight, as an associated cold front drops south through KS and OK.
Modest low-level moisture transport, combined with
evapotranspiration, will result in low 60s dew points and moderate
MLCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) in advance of the front. Favorable
deep-layer shear and long hodographs will support supercells capable
of large hail and localized severe gusts with initial development.
Low-level flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but a tornado
cannot be ruled out with any stronger/sustained supercell. Storms
may tend to evolve into a cluster/compact MCS with time, and
possibly move into parts of north TX later tonight. 

...Eastern KY/TN into the Mid Atlantic...
An expansive mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across much
of the eastern CONUS today. A mid/upper-level speed maximum will
move through the base of the trough across NC/VA during the
afternoon and early evening. Despite limited low-level moisture,
cold temperatures aloft will support generally weak but sufficient
buoyancy for widely scattered storm development with a
southeast-moving cold front. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will
be possible with the strongest storms. Any clustering of storms
could result in more concentrated areas of wind-damage potential.
Some potential exists for greater concentration of strong/severe
storms from eastern VA across the DelMarVa peninsula and into
southern NJ this afternoon as the cold front encounters somewhat
greater instability. Higher severe probabilities may be warranted
with the next outlook update if confidence in this scenario
increases. 

...Central/south FL...
Ongoing morning storms, occasionally strong to marginally severe,
continue across the central FL peninsula at 13z. These storms will
continue moving south today, where deep-layer shear will remain
sufficient to support modest storm organization and some continued
potential for gusty/damaging winds and perhaps small hail. Most
guidance continues to suggest redevelopment of thunderstorms across
the peninsula later tonight, with sufficient deep-layer shear
remaining in place for a few stronger storms. 

...CO/NM...
Isolated stronger storms may develop from south-central/southeast CO
into northeast NM, within a modestly moist and unstable environment.
While confidence in more than a very isolated severe threat remains
low with this outlook, severe probabilities may need to be
considered if trends support greater coverage of severe potential
into the late afternoon and evening.

..Bunting/Bentley.. 05/31/2025

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