SPC May 31, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...AND TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA....

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible late this
afternoon into tonight from southern Kansas across central Oklahoma
to the Red River.  A few severe storms are also possible this
afternoon over parts of the Mid-Atlantic coastal region.

...KS/OK...
Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
digging southward across the Dakotas.  This feature will approach KS
by late afternoon, and track into the southern Plains overnight. 
Strong heating and steep lapse rates ahead of the trough, combined
with increasing large scale ascent, will result in scattered
thunderstorms over eastern NE/northern KS with a risk of hail and
gusty winds.  As this activity moves southward into a progressively
more moist/unstable air mass, thunderstorm intensification is
expected - mainly after dark.  Storms will continue southward across
southern KS into OK, with a few supercells expected capable of large
hail and damaging winds.  Storms may persist into the overnight
hours across southern OK/north TX.

...DelMarVa...
A broad upper trough is present today over the northeast states,
with a compact shortwave trough over southwest PA approaching the
DelMarVa region.  This system will promote afternoon convective
development from southeast PA into eastern VA, with storms spreading
across eastern MD/DE/southern NJ before tracking offshore.  Cool
temperatures aloft and sufficient westerly mid-level winds suggest
the potential for thunderstorm organization and a few severe storms
capable of damaging winds and hail.  Refer to MCD #1054 for further
details.

...South FL...
A sagging cold front will continue to result in a few strong
thunderstorms across south FL this afternoon, capable of locally
gusty winds.  Refer to MCD #1053 for further details.

..Hart/Barnes.. 05/31/2025

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