SPC MD 1054

MD 1054 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC


Mesoscale Discussion 1054
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the coastal Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 311552Z - 311815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing locally damaging wind
gusts and marginally severe hail will spread/develop
east-southeastward across the coastal Mid-Atlantic states through
this afternoon. Watch issuance is uncertain, though trends are being
monitored.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of a lead midlevel impulse tracking
northeastward across the Northeast, water-vapor imagery and VWP data
show a trailing impulse and related speed maximum advancing
east-southeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic states -- within the base
of a larger-scale trough. While 12Z soundings across the
Mid-Atlantic sampled poor deep-layer lapse rates on the backside of
the lead impulse and overnight convection, upstream soundings show
cold temperatures aloft and related steep midlevel lapse rates
advancing toward the area in tandem with the trailing impulse.
Despite partially modified/recycled boundary-layer moisture
(middle/upper 50s dewpoints), these steep midlevel lapse rates and
diurnal heating in cloud breaks will still yield sufficient
instability for gradual thunderstorm intensification into this
afternoon. Straight/elongating hodographs -- characterized by around
30 kt of effective shear -- will support a few small/loosely
organized storm clusters. 

The primary concern with this activity will be locally damaging wind
gusts of 45-60 mph (aided by the steepening deep-layer lapse rates),
though marginally severe hail (to around 1 inch) will also be
possible with any longer-lived cells. It is unclear if the overall
severe risk will warrant a watch issuance, though trends are being
monitored.

..Weinman/Hart.. 05/31/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   37187567 36777573 36547611 36587659 36847709 37727737
            38767734 39367692 39757616 39817523 39687477 39367441
            38797465 37187567 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

StormPrep