MD 1055 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND PIEDMONT
Mesoscale Discussion 1055
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025
Areas affected...Parts of the central Appalachians and Piedmont
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 311732Z - 311930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A couple strong to locally damaging gusts and small hail
are possible through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving
southeastward across parts of the central Appalachians -- focused
within the left exit region of a robust midlevel jet streak. Limited
boundary-layer moisture (upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints) are
yielding weak buoyancy, however, steep midlevel lapse rates and
straight/elongated hodographs (40-50 kt of effective shear) could
still support transient storm intensification/organization. Given
30-40-kt winds in the lowest 2 km AGL (per VWP data), convective
momentum transport may favor a couple strong to locally damaging
gusts through the afternoon, and small hail will also be possible.
..Weinman/Hart.. 05/31/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
LAT...LON 36147989 36168147 36438253 36628285 37038298 37608264
37828213 37958129 37958056 37717991 37157923 36437919
36147989
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN