SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS INTO OK AND EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts remain possible tonight from southern Kansas across Oklahoma to the Red River. ...Central/southern Plains... Storms have been slow to develop along a weak surface boundary across southern KS. However, storm coverage is expected to increase with time later this evening as a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough digs south-southeastward from Nebraska. Increasing deep-layer flow/shear, cooling temperatures aloft, and moderate buoyancy will support scattered strong to potentially severe storms, with a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. Elevated storms may tend to redevelop during the overnight hours, and it remains possible that one or more clusters will evolve and move south-southeastward toward the Red River before the end of the forecast period. Farther north, a few strong storms may persist through the evening from southeast NE into eastern KS and western MO. Effective shear is weaker in this region compared to areas to the southwest, but relatively cool temperatures aloft could support isolated hail with the strongest storms. ...VA/NC... A general weakening trend is expected to continue with ongoing convection across parts of VA/NC, with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization. However, weak buoyancy and moderate deep-layer flow could support gusty winds and small hail with the strongest remaining convection this evening. ...South FL overnight... Most guidance suggests thunderstorm redevelopment in the vicinity of the southwest FL Peninsula prior to the end of the forecast period, as a low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related jetlet approach the region from the northeast Gulf. Moderate buoyancy and modestly favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for a few strong storms, though any organized severe threat may not evolve until near/after 12Z. ..Dean.. 06/01/2025