SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...High Plains to southwestern MN... Strong northern-stream short-wave trough is currently located over southeastern BC into the northern inter mountain region. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern MT/WY by 03/00z as 60+kt 500mb flow translates into the northern Dakotas. During the latter half of the period, mid-level heights will be suppressed across this region and a pronounced surface anticyclone will force a strong cold front to surge across the eastern Dakotas/NE into the upper MS Valley. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the cold front with the steepest 0-3km lapse rates forecast across the central High Plains, and across portions of northern MN by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached just ahead of the surging cold front by 21-22z, and scattered convection should readily develop along the wind shift. While some supercell threat is expected, especially early in the convective evolution, storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning to more wind. Farther south into the TX Panhandle region, a well-defined upper low is beginning to eject northeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will open up and progress into the southern High Plains by late evening. Large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave will prove instrumental in aiding scattered robust convection across much of the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings are not particularly noteworthy, but amply buoyant and adequately sheared for some convective organization. While some hail risk appears possible early, locally damaging winds may be more common as convection spreads east during the evening hours, aided by southern-stream short wave. ...South Florida... Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast across the lower MS Valley, and will progress into the eastern Gulf Basin by late afternoon. Some increase in mid-level flow is expected across the southern Peninsula, along with a LLJ by early evening across southeast FL. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount of convection across this region as large-scale support increases ahead of the short wave. Scattered-widespread thunderstorms, beginning as early as 18z, are expected. Some of this activity may be robust at times. Have introduced a MRGL Risk to account for a local wind/hail threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/02/2025