SPC Jun 2, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains
into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the
expected hazards.

...High Plains to southwestern MN...

Strong northern-stream short-wave trough is currently located over
southeastern BC into the northern inter mountain region. This
feature is forecast to advance into eastern MT/WY by 03/00z as 60+kt
500mb flow translates into the northern Dakotas. During the latter
half of the period, mid-level heights will be suppressed across this
region and a pronounced surface anticyclone will force a strong cold
front to surge across the eastern Dakotas/NE into the upper MS
Valley.

Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be
noted ahead of the cold front with the steepest 0-3km lapse rates
forecast across the central High Plains, and across portions of
northern MN by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective
temperatures will be breached just ahead of the surging cold front
by 21-22z, and scattered convection should readily develop along the
wind shift. While some supercell threat is expected, especially
early in the convective evolution, storm mergers and potential
clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning to more
wind.

Farther south into the TX Panhandle region, a well-defined upper low
is beginning to eject northeast across the northern Baja Peninsula.
This feature will open up and progress into the southern High Plains
by late evening. Large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave will
prove instrumental in aiding scattered robust convection across much
of the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings
are not particularly noteworthy, but amply buoyant and adequately
sheared for some convective organization. While some hail risk
appears possible early, locally damaging winds may be more common as
convection spreads east during the evening hours, aided by
southern-stream short wave.

...South Florida...

Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast across the lower MS
Valley, and will progress into the eastern Gulf Basin by late
afternoon. Some increase in mid-level flow is expected across the
southern Peninsula, along with a LLJ by early evening across
southeast FL. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount
of convection across this region as large-scale support increases
ahead of the short wave. Scattered-widespread thunderstorms,
beginning as early as 18z, are expected. Some of this activity may
be robust at times. Have introduced a MRGL Risk to account for a
local wind/hail threat with this activity.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/02/2025

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