SPC Jun 2, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains
into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the
expected hazards.

...Central High Plains to MN...
Early morning satellite imagery depicts a northern-stream shortwave
trough moving into western MT. Expectation is for this shortwave to
continue eastward across MT and the northern Plains today, ending
the period over far northwestern Ontario. Surface cyclogenesis is
anticipated over SD ahead of this shortwave. The resulting surface
low will track quickly northeastward into northern MN along a
seasonally strong cold front. This front, which recent surface
analysis places from northwest MN into the far northern NE
Panhandle, is expected to extend from the MN Arrowhead through
central NE by 00Z tonight. Strong heating is expected ahead of this
front, bringing temperatures into the upper 80s/low 90s from central
MN into central NE. These temperatures coupled with dewpoints in the
upper 50s to mid 60s will foster airmass destabilization, and
thunderstorm development is expected as the cold front and
large-scale forcing for ascent interacts with this destabilized
airmass.

Initial thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon 
across MN where the strongest low-level convergence will be in
place. Dewpoints (and overall buoyancy) will be lower here than
areas farther southwest, which is expected to limit overall storm
strength and contribute to an anafrontal storm character. Late
afternoon/early evening storm development is likely farther
southwest into central NE along the wind shift. Strong buoyancy will
favor robust updrafts, but deep-layer shear will be modest. This
weaker shear coupled with linear forcing is expected to result in a
quick transition to a predominantly linear mode. As a result, some
supercell threat is possible early in the convective evolution but,
storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail
risk transitioning rather quickly to more wind. 

Large-scale ascent could also help support another area of
thunderstorms over southeast WY and the adjacent NE Panhandle. The
strength and/or organization of these storms is uncertain, but there
is some chance they will persist long enough to interact with the
storms along front, locally enhancing the severe potential.

...Southern High Plains...
Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving
across the Southwest. This shortwave is forecast to reach the
southern High Plains by late evening. Increasing large-scale ascent
will result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the region
during the afternoon and evening. Some isolated hail is possible
early, but these storms are expected to become increasingly outflow
dominant as they move into the deeply mixed airmass over the West
TX, the TX/OK Panhandles, and southwest KS. A few severe gusts are
possible.

...South FL...
Shortwave trough moving over the central Gulf Coast is forecast to
continue southeastward into the eastern Gulf, with increasing
large-scale ascent downstream across much of the FL Peninsula.  This
synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount of convection, with
scattered to widespread thunderstorms beginning as early as 18Z.
Some occasionally strong updrafts are possible, capable of both
isolated hail and damaging gusts.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 06/02/2025

StormPrep