SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EASTERN MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and wind are possible from mid-afternoon Wednesday through early morning Thursday in parts of the Southwest. Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail may occur across the eastern Midwest from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough will dominate much of the weather pattern across the CONUS on Wednesday with a base across the Southwest and a trough axis extending toward the northern Plains. Multiple shortwaves will be embedded within this flow which may result in focused regions of thunderstorms on Wednesday. At the surface, a stalled front will extend from the Great Lakes to Far West Texas. This front will be a focus for storm development Wednesday afternoon/evening. ...Eastern Midwest... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along a frontal zone from the Ozarks to the western Great Lakes Wednesday morning. Convergence will be weak through the day as the front/composite outflow slowly shifts east through the period. Weak to potentially moderate instability will develop ahead of the front as temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the 60s. Overall forcing will be weak with rising heights aloft and weakening convergence along the frontal zone. Moderate shear will be present through much of the day, but it will be oriented parallel to the frontal zone which is less favorable for sustained severe storms. An environment featuring weak to moderate instability and moderate deep-layer shear will support some isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. However, a more organized threat does not appear likely. ...Southwest into Southern High Plains... A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will move east across the Southwest on Wednesday. Ahead of this feature, low-level flow will veer and bring low-level moisture northwestward across eastern New Mexico. Weak to potentially moderate instability will develop by mid-day with thunderstorms likely initially over the higher terrain and eventually shifting east. Moderate shear will support the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. These storms may be somewhat on the smaller side given the weaker buoyancy. However, there is a conditional risk for one or two larger/stronger supercells to persist into the evening across the Texas Panhandle if moisture/instability can recover ahead of the storms moving out of New Mexico. Strong shear will be present across southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas beneath the mid-level jet streak. If sufficient instability can develop far enough west into the higher terrain, a few supercells are possible with a primary threat for large hail. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025