MD 1089 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1089
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Areas affected...western OK into northwest TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 031715Z - 031845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe potential will continue to increase across western
OK and northwest Texas the next 1-2 hours, and watch issuance is
likely by mid-afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus is noted in visible satellite imagery
ahead of a cold front across far western OK and the eastern TX
Panhandle. Additional agitated cumulus is noted further south across
the eastern South Plains as well. This activity is developing within
an area of strong heating where temperatures have warmed well into
the 80s amid mid/upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints. This is
contributing to MLCAPE increasing to around 1500-2000 J/kg at
midday. Continued heating and low-level theta-e advection will
support further destabilization into the afternoon, along with
rapidly eroding capping. Convective initiation is likely soon across
far western OK, with additional storm development expected through
the afternoon.
Effective shear magnitudes are somewhat modest, but should improve
some this afternoon. Regardless, 20-40 kt south/southwesterly flow
through much of the low-levels and cloud-bearing layer will support
organized storms. While isolated cells are possible across the warm
sector in low-level confluence bands, the more likely scenario is
for rapid development into a linear storm mode with bowing segments,
likely due to deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary and
linear forcing along the cold front. More discrete cells may be more
likely across northwest TX where open warm sector convection may be
more likely. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard, though any
more discrete convection could also produce isolated large hail.
While tornado potential is low, it is not zero, though low-level
hodographs and 0-1 km SRH are expected to remain small. A severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be needed based on convective trends.
..Leitman/Smith.. 06/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 36539950 36629893 36339850 35849838 34559835 33609850
33269865 32979909 32799942 32829975 32880034 33100068
33460073 35200032 35510021 36419980 36539950
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN