Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Unsettled and active weather will continue today throughout the Peninsula as an upper-level disturbance and lingering frontal boundary will continue to bring scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the day (80-near 100% chance of rain).
- The heaviest rainfall looks to remain over the Florida Keys and southernmost Peninsula areas this morning before additional activity develops with daytime heating and spreading inland.
- Moisture continues to be pulled northward from the tropics, which will also help for isolated showers and thunderstorms to return across the I-10 corridor this afternoon and evening (25-55% chance of rain).
- Daily thunderstorms will be capable of becoming locally strong to severe during the peak heating hours of the day, bringing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph), small hail and locally heavy rainfall.
- A Flood Watch has been issued through Wednesday morning as multiple rounds of heavy rainfall from yesterday and today could lead to instances of localized flash flooding across portions of South Florida.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal to Slight Risk (level 1–2 of 4) for Flash Flooding from the I-4 corridor and southward through the Keys today.
- Breezy wind gusts upwards of 15-25 mph will develop across the state outside of thunderstorm activity, especially by the mid-to-late afternoon hours.
- High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s throughout the Peninsula with extensive cloud cover and elevated rain chances, while the Panhandle will reach the upper 80s to middle 90s.
- Heat index values will rise into the middle to upper 90s across the Panhandle and Big Bend.
- As the upper-level disturbance shifts eastward towards the Atlantic coastline, showers and thunderstorms will extend northward along the I-95 corridor and Atlantic Coast overnight.
- Additional shower and thunderstorms activity will also continue throughout the state overnight and into Wednesday morning (40-85% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will fall into the upper 60s to upper 70s overnight.
- Offshore of the Southeastern U.S. Coast: A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form near or offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast along a frontal boundary during the next couple of days. If the low remains offshore, it could gradually develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics later this week while moving northeastward at 10-15 mph. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time, but will bring elevated rain chances, breezy winds and rough surf conditions for Atlantic Coast beaches over the next couple of days.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…low…10%.
- A moderate risk for rip currents will extend along all Panhandle and Atlantic Coast beaches as surf increases to 2-4′ and onshore winds return.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.