SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. Locally damaging winds may accompany convection that develops from the lower Great Lakes into eastern Texas. ...Southern High Plains... Mid-level height falls across the lower CO River Valley are beginning to dislodge an upper low off the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to advance to near the AZ/NM border by 18z, then into the southern Rockies by 05/00z. Latest model guidance suggests 500 mb flow in excess of 40kt will translate across southern NM into the TX Panhandle by peak heating. Some pressure reduction is expected across the southern High Plains ahead of this feature, and a LLJ should develop after sunset from west TX into southeast NM. This large-scale evolution favors low-level moisture being drawn into the higher terrain of northern NM. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across southwestern NM, but modest heating will contribute to destabilization across much of eastern NM by late afternoon. Current thinking is scattered robust convection, including supercells, should generate across the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristo range, then spread east ahead of the short wave. Forecast soundings favor hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts. A brief tornado or two can also not be ruled out as this activity spreads toward the southern TX Panhandle. ...Elsewhere... A narrow corridor of high PW air mass (1.75-2 inches) will extend across eastern TX-AR-southern MO-IL-southern lower MI. Poor lapse rates will be noted along this corridor, but modest instability and adequate 0-6km shear suggest a few robust storms could evolve that would pose at least some risk for gusty winds. Greatest risk for damaging winds will be during the afternoon when buoyancy will be its greatest. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/04/2025