SPC Jun 4, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into
the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Hail and
wind are the primary concerns. Locally damaging winds may accompany
convection that develops from the lower Great Lakes into eastern
Texas.

...Southern High Plains...

Mid-level height falls across the lower CO River Valley are
beginning to dislodge an upper low off the northern Baja Peninsula.
This feature is forecast to advance to near the AZ/NM border by 18z,
then into the southern Rockies by 05/00z. Latest model guidance
suggests 500 mb flow in excess of 40kt will translate across
southern NM into the TX Panhandle by peak heating. Some pressure
reduction is expected across the southern High Plains ahead of this
feature, and a LLJ should develop after sunset from west TX into
southeast NM. This large-scale evolution favors low-level moisture
being drawn into the higher terrain of northern NM. Strongest
boundary-layer heating is forecast across southwestern NM, but
modest heating will contribute to destabilization across much of
eastern NM by late afternoon. Current thinking is scattered robust
convection, including supercells, should generate across the higher
terrain of the Sangre de Cristo range, then spread east ahead of the
short wave. Forecast soundings favor hail, and perhaps a few severe
wind gusts. A brief tornado or two can also not be ruled out as this
activity spreads toward the southern TX Panhandle.

...Elsewhere...

A narrow corridor of high PW air mass (1.75-2 inches) will extend
across eastern TX-AR-southern MO-IL-southern lower MI. Poor lapse
rates will be noted along this corridor, but modest instability and
adequate 0-6km shear suggest a few robust storms could evolve that
would pose at least some risk for gusty winds. Greatest risk for
damaging winds will be during the afternoon when buoyancy will be
its greatest.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/04/2025

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