SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. Locally damaging winds may accompany convection that develops from the lower Great Lakes into eastern Texas. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing that currently extends across much of the western and central CONUS is forecast to remain in place throughout the day. Western periphery of expansive subtropical ridging will remain over the East Coast as well. Despite little change in the large-scale upper pattern, multiple shortwave troughs progressing within these larger features will contribute to convectively active day, with thunderstorms anticipated from the southern Great Basin and Southwest into the High Plains as well as from Lower MI into east/southeast TX. Numerous thunderstorms are anticipated from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, and the Southeast and Florida as well. ...Southern Rockies into the southern High Plains... The showers and isolated thunderstorm ongoing across the region are expected to continue northeastward while weakening over the next several hours. Much of this region is currently under a cool and dry post-frontal regime, but southerly flow should return this afternoon, contributing to quick airmass modification ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the Southwest states. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of this shortwave from the Four Corners eastward into the southern High Plains. The strongest storms are expected during the late afternoon/early evening across east-central NM, where the leading edge of the better low-level moisture return interacts with storms moving off the higher terrain of central NM ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend through this region as well, resulting in environmental conditions supportive of supercells. Large hail is favored initially, but high cloud bases and strong outflow will likely result in a transition to a more linear/bowing mode tonight. Despite nocturnal cooling and resultant low-level stabilization, some strong gusts are still possible as these storms continue into the western TX Panhandle this evening and tonight. A low-probability tornado threat exists as these storms move towards the TX Panhandle, where better low-level moisture and stronger southeasterly winds are possible. However, the anticipated linear storm mode and stabilizing nocturnal cooling should keep the tornado threat low. ...Lower MI southward through the OH Valley and Ozarks into East TX... A weakening cold front currently extends from northern Lower MI into central TX. Much of this front is expected to make modest eastward/southeastward progress throughout the day, before becoming increasingly stationary tonight. A moist airmass precedes this front, and afternoon dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s will support moderate buoyancy and scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Moderate 0-6 km (i.e. 30-35 kt) shear suggests a few robust storms could evolve that would pose at least some risk for gusty winds. Greatest risk for damaging winds will be during the afternoon when buoyancy is maximized. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 06/04/2025