MD 1109 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST INDIANA…NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1109
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025
Areas affected...Northeast Indiana...northwest Ohio and southeast
Lower Michigan
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 041657Z - 041900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon with
cells/clusters in a broken band, though a severe thunderstorm watch
appears unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...Ahead of a slow-moving cold front and associated
thicker cloud band, a convergence/differential heating zone is
established from northern IN into southeast Lower MI. Continued
surface heating of a moist boundary layer, beneath relatively poor
midlevel lapse rates, will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this
afternoon with minimal convective inhibition. The zone of stronger
surface heating/destabilization coincides with a belt of 40-50 kt
midlevel flow and similar vertical shear (mainly straight
hodographs). Weak forcing for ascent and minimal convective
inhibition suggest scattered thunderstorm/cluster development early
this afternoon, with storms expected to spread east-northeastward
through late afternoon. Isolated wind damage will be possible with
the strongest storms, especially with any more north-south oriented
line segments, in an environment with steep low-level lapse rates.
At this time, the expectation is for strong-severe outflow winds and
damage potential to remain rather isolated, thus a watch is not
currently anticipated.
..Thompson/Smith.. 06/04/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...
LAT...LON 42058317 40918457 40438521 40198567 40308604 40798612
41328581 42168470 43818281 43808264 43008252 42058317
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH