Unsettled weather will expand across the Sunshine State throughout the day with the help of tropical moisture and an upper-level disturbance moving from the northeastern gulf waters and towards the southeastern U.S. coast.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing across portions of South Florida, but additional activity will continue to develop throughout the day across the state generally spreading from south to north (65-95% chance of rain).
Extensive cloud cover may limit some thunderstorm develop, but any breaks in cloud cover may allow for embedded strong to severe thunderstorms to develop in the peak heating hours of the day.
Frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph), and heavy downpours will be possible embedded within thunderstorm activity.
Intense rainfall rates and repeated rounds of rainfall could lead to instances of flash flooding, especially over areas that have already seen locally heavy downpours over the last couple of days.
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding near statewide.
Portions of Miami-Dade will remain within a Flood Watch through this afternoon as repeated rounds of heavy rainfall over urban areas could exacerbate the potential for localized flooding.
Cloud cover and elevated rain chances will keep high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s throughout the state, with heat index values generally remaining in the lower 90s.
The Florida Keys will see heat index values in the upper 90s to lower triple digits (100-102-degrees) this afternoon.
Saharan Dry Air will begin to filter in across portions of South Florida overnight helping to reprieve shower and thunderstorm activity.
Throughout the rest of the state, activity will generally diminish, but isolated to scattered activity will continue overnight throughout the state (25-55% chance of rain).
Low temperatures will fall into the upper 60s to upper 70s throughout the state overnight, except for the Keys which will see low temperatures in the lower 80s.
Breezy onshore winds and elevated surf of 2-5′ throughout the state will lead to a moderate to high risk for rip currents statewide.
Near the Southeastern U.S. Coast: Showers and thunderstorms located over the Florida Peninsula and southeastern U.S. coast, the northern Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters are associated with a broad upper-level disturbance. A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form from this system on Thursday, but it is becoming increasingly likely that this development will occur inland over the Carolina’s. As a result, the low’s chances of acquiring subtropical or tropical characteristics have diminished. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause some flash flooding along portions of the southeastern U.S. coast today and on Thursday. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time, but will bring elevated rain chances, breezy winds and rough surf conditions for Atlantic Coast beaches over the next couple of days.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0%.
*Formation chance through 7 days…low…near 0%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.