SPC MD 1117

MD 1117 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TX PANHANDLE

Mesoscale Discussion 1117
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 051603Z - 051800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail may develop through
midday but the overall severe risk/evolution remain uncertain.  Will
monitor convective trends for the possibility of a Watch.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite/radar mosaic shows thunderstorms
developing within a moist/warm conveyor in the TX Panhandle
primarily to the north of I-40.  There appears to be an arcing
stationary standing wave-like feature that this convection
initiated.  Surface analysis indicates a relatively stable/moist
near-surface layer with temperatures in the mid 60s deg F and
dewpoints in the lower 60s.  Some thinning of the stratus is
expected over the next few hours beneath a capping layer likely near
750 mb (per 12 UTC Midland raob).  It is unclear whether this
convection is able to transition to become surface-based over the
next few hours.  

The Amarillo, TX WSR-88D VAD shows flow veering and strengthening
with height to around 50-kt at 7 km AGL and an elongated hodograph. 
Expecting continued but gradual thinning of the stratus and heating
of the boundary layer to result in a very unstable airmass
developing during the early to mid afternoon as MLCAPE increases
from 1000 to 3000+ J/kg.  Given this increase in buoyancy and shear
supporting supercells, the recently developed late morning updrafts
may become supercellular and pose a risk for large hail over the
next 1-2 hours.  Low confidence exists regarding the convective
scenario towards the early afternoon.

..Smith/Thompson.. 06/05/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   35320202 35540245 35870245 36260191 36279998 35999973
            35429976 35190025 35320202 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

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