MD 1118 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025
Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 051727Z - 052000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...The severe risk will gradually increase through mid/late
afternoon. Supercells will be capable of producing tornadoes (some
possibly strong), large to giant hail, and severe winds gusts. A
Tornado watch is likely by 19Z.
DISCUSSION...An east/west-oriented convectively augmented warm front
is moving slowly northward over the TX South Plains, though
persistent cloud coverage to its north will tend to limit northward
motion. Along the boundary, visible satellite imagery shows slowly
eroding low-level clouds, and billow clouds are gradually
transitioning to HCRs. This boundary-layer destabilization will
continue through the afternoon, and given upper 60s/lower 70s
dewpoints (higher to the south), a strongly unstable air mass will
develop. Current thinking is that storms will develop over parts of
southeast NM within the steeper low-level lapse rate plume (where
boundary-layer cumulus is deepening), and track eastward in the
vicinity of the warm front. However, given the deep/rich moisture
and weak inhibition, additional storm development is possible near
the boundary in the TX South Plains.
Evolving storms will be moving into the strongly unstable air mass,
where 50-60 kt of effective shear and generally weak large-scale
ascent will promote discrete supercells. The primary concerns with
initial supercells will be large to giant hail (3+ inches) and
locally severe gusts. However, backed surface winds along/north of
the northward-shifting warm front, beneath a gradually strengthening
low-level jet, will yield enlarging clockwise-curved hodographs
(effective SRH increasing to 300+ m2/s2). This will support
increasing potential for supercell tornadoes (some of which may be
strong).
While timing of storm development and maturation is uncertain, a
Tornado Watch will likely be issued by 19Z for parts of the area.
..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/05/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 32420155 32490273 32690347 33110372 34030361 34350341
34640270 34670129 34420047 34100015 33510010 32990023
32620069 32420155
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN