SPC MD 1145

MD 1145 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

Mesoscale Discussion 1145
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 061601Z - 061800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail will be
possible with multicell storms after 18-19z (2-3p EDT) this
afternoon.  The need for a watch is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating is ongoing across southern New
England along and south of a diffuse baroclinic/differential heating
zone.  As surface temperatures warm through the mid-upper 80s with
mid-upper 60s dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg with
minimal convective inhibition.  By early-mid afternoon, widely
scattered thunderstorm development will become probable along the
diffuse baroclinic zone/buoyancy gradient.  Steep low-level lapse
rates, DCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg and precipitation loading could favor
isolated wind damage with downbursts, while the moderately large
buoyancy will be sufficient for marginally severe hail.  Vertical
shear will remain relatively weak and the storms are currently
expected to remain only loosely organized, so the need for a watch
this afternoon is uncertain.

..Thompson/Smith.. 06/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   42277141 41837132 41607160 41487249 41347332 41777359
            42277352 42497313 42697244 42647166 42277141 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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